SCIENCE ARTICLE
The role of housing loans in stimulating economic growth: The case of Poland
 
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Department of Banking and Global Financial System, Krakow University of Economics, Poland
 
These authors had equal contribution to this work
 
 
Submission date: 2025-05-16
 
 
Final revision date: 2025-06-30
 
 
Acceptance date: 2025-08-07
 
 
Online publication date: 2025-09-17
 
 
Publication date: 2025-09-17
 
 
Corresponding author
Mateusz Folwarski   

Department of Banking and Global Financial System, Krakow University of Economics, Rakowicka 27, 31-510, Kraków, Poland
 
 
Management 2025;(2):18-39
 
KEYWORDS
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
E51
G21
O47
 
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Research background and purpose:
Studies and the impact of bank lending on GDP growth indicate a significant and positive relationship. Against the background of various forms of lending, housing loans stand out as a particularly important channel of influence of the banking sector on the real economy. The aim of the article is to empirically determine the impact of housing loans on Poland's economic growth in 2010-2023. The article poses a hypothesis stating that housing loans granted by the banking sector in Poland have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth, with the impact of loans granted by commercial banks being stronger than that of cooperative banks.

Design/methodology/approach:
The study uses macroeconomic data for Poland on an annual basis, obtained from the CSO and FSA databases. The paper uses three linear regression models, estimated using the classical least squares method. Annual changes in real GDP were used as an explanatory variable, while the value of housing loans granted by commercial banks, cooperative banks, and the total banking sector were used as explanatory variables. For model transparency and to reduce the problem of collinearity, a VIF analysis was also carried out, thus eliminating overly correlated variables.

Findings:
The results obtained confirmed the positive and statistically significant impact of housing loans on economic growth. In the study conducted, the regression coefficients were, respectively: 0.066 for the entire banking sector, 0.059 for commercial banks, and 0.054 for cooperative banks. In all models, high values of the adjusted coefficient of determination were achieved (R² ranging from 0.917 to 0.950), indicating the high strength of the variables adopted. These results confirm the research hypothesis set out in the paper.

Value added and limitations:
The study makes an important contribution to the literature by providing evidence on the importance of housing loans as a driver of Poland's economic growth. The conclusions of the study can also provide valuable material for policymakers shaping credit and macroprudential policies. However, the analytical method is limited by its assumption of linear and symmetric effects and a lower R² for cooperative banks, possibly due to local influences or or variables not included in the model.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The publication was co-financed/financed from the subsidy granted to the Cracow University of Economics - Project nr 024/EFB/2023/POT
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