SCIENCE ARTICLE
Managing demographic transition in Poland: policy alignment, adaptive capacity and demographic resilience
More details
Hide details
1
Faculty of Production Engineering and Logistics, Opole University of Technology, Poland
2
Faculty of Economics and Management, Opole University of Technology, Poland
Submission date: 2026-08-18
Final revision date: 2026-09-19
Acceptance date: 2026-10-15
Online publication date: 2026-11-07
Publication date: 2026-11-02
Corresponding author
Dariusz Paweł Masłowski
Faculty of Production Engineering and Logistics, Opole University of Technology, Prószkowska 76, 45-758, Opole, Poland
Management 2026;(2):382-413
KEYWORDS
JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Research background and purpose:
Demographic transition creates management challenges that extend beyond declining fertility and population ageing to labour-resource availability, work–family reconciliation and increasing demand for age-related services. Public-policy responses therefore need to combine measures intended to influence future demographic trajectories with instruments enabling adaptation to structural demographic change. This study assesses whether selected public-policy instruments in Poland are formally aligned with the principal demographic-management pressures and how the resulting policy portfolio is distributed between mitigation- and adaptation-oriented responses.
Design/methodology/approach:
The study applies a structured document-based policy analysis to eight nationwide policy instruments operational as of 30 June 2026. Five demographic-management dimensions were identified: low fertility and family-formation constraints (P1), work–family reconciliation (P2), labour-resource contraction (P3), active ageing and longer working lives (P4), and age-related service adaptation (P5). Instrument–problem relationships were coded on an ordinal 0–2 scale and aggregated using a Policy Alignment Score (PAS). Portfolio-level alignment concentrations were additionally calculated across the five dimensions.
Findings:
The highest portfolio-level concentration of formal alignment was identified for labour-resource contraction (P3; A₃ = 8), followed by work–family reconciliation and age-related service adaptation (P2 = P5; A₂ = A₅ = 6). The lowest concentration was identified for low fertility and family-formation constraints (P1; A₁ = 3), with no analysed instrument showing direct P1 alignment. The labour-market policy framework achieved the highest instrument-level PAS (6), followed by Active Parent and Active Maluch (5 each). Overall, the portfolio demonstrates a stronger adaptation-oriented than directly fertility-oriented profile.
Value added and limitations:
The study develops a transparent instrument-level PAS that distinguishes policy existence, policy alignment and policy effectiveness and enables demographic instruments to be assessed as a portfolio rather than individually. Empirically, PAS diagnoses the breadth, strength and distribution of formal policy alignment; conceptually, the resulting portfolio architecture is interpreted in relation to adaptive capacity and demographic resilience in public management. The analysis therefore treats adaptive capacity and demographic resilience as broader management concepts rather than direct outcomes of the PAS measurement. The purposively selected portfolio does not constitute an exhaustive assessment of all demographic-related policies in Poland.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
During the preparation of this work, the authors used ChatGPT (OpenAI) to assist with translation, language editing, improvement of sentence structure and grammatical correctness, and enhancement of the clarity, readability and consistency
of the manuscript. The tool was also used for editorial and linguistic refinement of selected methodological descriptions and tables. All sources, data, calculations, coding decisions, methodological assumptions, results and scientific interpretations
were independently reviewed, verified and approved by the authors. After using this tool, the authors reviewed and edited the content as needed and take full responsibility for the content of the publication
REFERENCES (34)
1.
Aidukaite, J. (2009). Old welfare state theories and new welfare regimes in Eastern Europe: Challenges and implications. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 42(1), 23-39.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.post.... 2009.02.004
3.
Aspalter, C., Kim, J., & Park, S. (2009). Analysing the welfare state in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia: An ideal-typical perspective. Social Policy & Administration, 43(2), 170- 185.
https://doi.org/10.1111/ j.1467 -9515.2009.00654.x
4.
Bignami, S., Endrich, M., Natale, F., & Ueffing, P. (2024). Low fertility in the EU: A review of trends and drivers (JRC137492). European Commission.
https://publications.jrc.ec.eu....
6.
Kancelaria Prezesa Rady Ministrów. (2024, October 17). „Odzyskać kontrolę. Zapewnić bezpieczeństwo” – strategia migracyjna na lata 2025–2030 [“Regain control. Ensure security”-Migration strategy for 2025–2030].
https://www.gov.pl/web/premier....
7.
Kancelaria Prezesa Rady Ministrów. (2025, December 17). Program „Aktywni Seniorzy – ASY” na lata 2026–2030 [“Active Seniors–ASY” programme for 2026–2030].
https://www.gov.pl/web/senior/....
8.
Cook, L. J., & Inglot, T. (2021). Central and Eastern European countries. In D. Béland, K. J. Morgan, H. Obinger & C. Pierson (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of the welfare state (2nd ed., pp. 881–898). Oxford University Press.
https://doi.org/10.1093/oxford....
9.
Dorville, Y., Filippucci, F., & Marcolin, L. (2025). How do structural trends affect labour shortages and mismatch? (OECD Productivity Working Papers, No. 38.) OECD Publishing.
https://doi.org/10.1787/acfb5c....
14.
Fenger, H. J. M. (2007). Welfare regimes in Central and Eastern Europe: Incorporating post-communist countries in a welfare regime typology. Contemporary Issues and Ideas in Social Sciences, 3(2), 1–30.
15.
Maggetti, M., & Trein, P. (2022). Policy integration, problem-solving, and the coronavirus disease crisis: Lessons for policy design. Policy and Society, 41(1), 53–67.
https://doi.org/10.1093/polsoc....
16.
Ministerstwo Rodziny, Pracy i Polityki Społecznej. (n.d.-a). Najważniejsze informacje o programie „Rodzina 800+” [Key information on the Family 800+ programme]. Retrieved August 18, 2026, from
https://www.gov.pl/web/rodzina....
17.
Ministerstwo Rodziny, Pracy i Polityki Społecznej. (2025a, December 23). Program Korpus Wsparcia Seniorów na rok 2026 [Senior Support Corps programme for 2026].
https://www.gov.pl/web/rodzina....
18.
Ministerstwo Rodziny, Pracy i Polityki Społecznej. (2025b, December 23). Program Opieka 75+ na rok 2026 [Care 75+ programme for 2026].
https://www.gov.pl/web/rodzina....
19.
Ministerstwo Rodziny, Pracy i Polityki Społecznej. (n.d.-b). Ogłoszenie ósmej zmiany programu Aktywny Maluch 2022–2029 [Announcement of the eighth amendment to the Active Toddler 2022–2029 programme].
https://www.gov.pl/web/rodzina....
25.
Qvist, J. Y. (2024). Managing an ageing workforce: Workplace retention practices and early labour market exit. Socio-Economic Review, 22(3), 1477–1500.
https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mw....
26.
Rogge, K. S., & Reichardt, K. (2016). Policy mixes for sustainability transitions: An extended concept and framework for analysis. Research Policy, 45(8), 1620–1635.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resp....
27.
Statistics Poland. (2026a). Population. Size and structure and vital statistics in Poland by territorial division in 2025. As of 31 December.
https://stat.gov.pl/en/topics/....
29.
Ueffing, P., Zubeldia Razquin, M., & Natale, F. (2025). The role of migration and fertility for the future size of the EU’s population (JRC141069). Publications Office of the European Union.
https://doi.org/10.2760/869679....
30.
Ustawa z dnia 15 maja 2024 r. o wspieraniu rodziców w aktywności zawodowej oraz w wychowaniu dziecka – „Aktywny rodzic” [Act of 15 May 2024 on supporting parents in professional activity and child-rearing—“Active Parent”]. (2024). Dziennik Ustaw Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej, poz. 858.
https://eli.gov.pl/eli/DU/2024....
31.
Ustawa z dnia 20 marca 2025 r. o rynku pracy i służbach zatrudnienia [Act of 20 March 2025 on the labour market and employment services]. (2025). Dziennik Ustaw Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej, poz.620.
https://eli.gov.pl/eli/DU/2025....
32.
Vignoli, D., & Guetto, R. (2025). Policies and fertility: Pronatalist vs. structural approaches. In R. Schoen (Ed.), Advances in social demography ( pp. 39–55). Springer.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-....
33.
Vince, J., Fudge, M., Fullbrook, L., & Haward, M. (2024). Understanding policy integration through an integrative capacity framework. Policy and Society, 43(3), 381–395.
https://doi.org/10.1093/polsoc....
34.
Warner, M. E., Zhang, X., & Guillemot, J. (2025). Demographic ageing: An opportunity to rethink economy, society and regions. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 18(1), 79–92.
https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/...